Unknown unknowns

Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there…

NOK: Thoughts on Q3 2019 Earnings

NOK reported Q3 2019 results today, and the stock is experiencing a spectacular one day drop for a large, mature company (-23.53%). Q3 results were actually inline, but the following actions have indicated a significant, material decline in the business: Dividend has been paused due to poor cash position…

Diner Beware

One of my friends recently recommended a great interview with a relatively unknown European value investor named Anthony Deden. Deden is highly skeptical of management, financial reports, ratings agencies, governments and the press. He seems to operate under the premise that everyone is lying and likens investing to "going to…

Investing Principles: Valuation

I believe that a good investment starts with proper valuation. This should be an uncontroversial statement (how do you know whether or not something is a good deal if you don't know how much it is intrinsically worth?), but from my experience most people don't seem to think this way.…

Baidu (BIDU): Valuation Update

It's been an eventful few months for Baidu's stock since my initial writeup on March 13th: The stock price was hammered due to fears of 1) "core" business (search) growth declining 2) general China macroeconomic weakness, which is impacting advertising spend and 3) trade talks between the USA and China…

Investing Principles: Owner Mentality

During the past year and a half, I feel like I've gained enough experience (mainly through making mistakes) to begin formulating a set of personal "investing principles". It's one thing to read generic aphorisms about investing in theory ("be greedy when others are fearful"), but quite another to execute on…

The Halo Effect

I recently finished reading an interesting book called The Halo Effect by Phil Rosenzweig. The premise is straightforward but powerful: most of the things that people think contribute to company performance are actually attributions based on performance. An example makes this distinction intuitively clearer: Barry Staw, then at the University…

2019 Mid-Year Portfolio Review

Not quite mid-year, but given the recent market volatility, I've been able to buy into a few companies that I've been monitoring for a while, and wanted to provide a quick summary of my positions and rationale. I think it's also important to chronicle both the ups and the downs…

XPP: XP Power

Things have been quiet on the blog lately because there hasn't been much actionable activity on my end. I've been looking into a lot of companies, but for the most part things seem fairly valued or overvalued. Given the "temperature" of the market - the recent WSJ headline of "'Fear…

BIDU: China's Google?

Baidu (BIDU) may be one of the rarest of sightings: an undervalued Chinese tech stock. It's traditionally hailed as China's Google, and operates in similar sectors: Search - With roughly 75% of China's market shareVideo - Both user generated content (like YouTube) and high-quality original programming (like Netflix)Cloud Services…